❄️ Snow Day Probability & School Closure Prediction

Snow Day Calculator for Edmonton - Will Schools Close Tomorrow?

Check your Edmonton snow day probability before the school announcement. Instant school closure prediction based on snowfall, extreme cold, wind chill, and road conditions.

🏛️ National Weather Service Data (USA)
🌍 Open-Meteo Forecast (Canada)
📍 Location-Based Prediction

Check Your Edmonton Snow Day Chance

Enter your ZIP or Postal Code to check your snow day chance. Get a Snow Day Index score based on real weather data — specific to your region's closure patterns.

Checking weather conditions...
Locating your ZIP code
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Snow Day Index
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Calculating...

🍊 Confidence: --

Score reflects weather conditions vs your region's baseline closure threshold.
Not a statistical probability — see methodology.

Tomorrow's School Status Estimate

Based on Snow Day Index — not calibrated probability yet

Full Closure
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2-Hr Delay
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School Open
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⚠️ These splits are model estimates only. Closure vs. delay decisions depend on district policy, superintendent judgment, and conditions not fully captured by forecast data.

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Expected Snow
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Morning Feel
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Wind Speed
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Snow Timing
Why This Score

Each factor is scored independently — no double-counting

5-Day Snow Day Outlook

Index scores for the next 5 days · Accuracy decreases beyond 24hrs

Day Snow Index Signal

⚠️ Days 3–5 carry low forecast confidence. Use as early signal only — recheck daily as storm approaches.

Prediction History

How this prediction has changed as the forecast updates

Check back later — score history builds as you refresh predictions for this location.
Hourly Snowfall Forecast
Snow (in/hr)
Morning window (4–8 AM)
What If Scenarios

All scenarios calculated at once — see how each condition changes the score

↑↓ arrow keys · Enter to select · Esc to close
  • Tonight / Tomorrow
  • Day After Tomorrow
  • In 3 Days

ℹ️ Rural districts close at lower snow totals (longer bus routes). Private schools may set different thresholds. These are small adjustments — weather conditions drive the score.

Enter custom weather conditions to see how they affect the Snow Day Index score

❄️ Expected Snowfall 4 inches
🌡️ Morning Temperature (°F) 28°F
💨 Wind Speed (mph) 10 mph
🧊 Ice Accumulation 0 inches
⏰ Storm peaks during 4 AM – 8 AM window
⚠️ Blizzard / Winter Storm Warning active
🌧️ Freezing rain expected
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Adjust the sliders above

🗺️ Live Weather Maps

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How the Snow Day Index Works

The score is not a statistical probability — it's a structured index built from weather conditions compared against your region's baseline closure thresholds. Each variable measures something independent. We designed the algorithm to avoid double-counting the same conditions twice.

🌨️ Snowfall vs Regional Threshold (0–40 pts)

The biggest factor. Snowfall is scored against your region's typical closure threshold — not a flat national scale. 4 inches in Atlanta scores higher than 4 inches in Buffalo because Atlanta's threshold is lower. The region is built into this variable, not applied as a separate multiplier afterward.

⏰ Storm Timing (0–25 pts)

Measures only when the storm falls, not how much. A small storm peaking at 4 AM scores higher timing than a large storm at noon. This is completely independent from snowfall amount.

🧊 Ice / Freezing Rain (0–20 pts)

Scored separately from snowfall because ice is a different hazard. Even 0.1 inches of freezing rain is more dangerous than 6 inches of snow. This variable only activates if freezing rain is detected — it cannot overlap with V1.

🌡️ Extreme Cold / Wind Chill (0–15 pts)

Cold-day closures are a completely separate mechanism. Wind chill below -10°F can close schools with zero snow. This variable is not correlated with snowfall — it only contributes in genuinely extreme cold conditions.

⚠️ NWS Alert — Floor, Not Bonus

This is the most important design decision. NWS alerts are issued because of the same storm already measured in V1–V3. Adding alert points on top would count the same storm twice. Instead, alerts set a minimum floor — if the weather score is already higher, the alert adds nothing.

📊 Future Calibration

We collect actual school closure outcomes via the feedback button. Once we have enough data, we can compare score buckets to real closure rates — converting the index into a genuinely calibrated estimate. The methodology section will show this data publicly as we collect it.

Regional Closure Thresholds

Different regions have different infrastructure, plow capacity, and experience with snow. These thresholds are baseline estimates — not arbitrary coefficients — and will be updated as outcome feedback data accumulates.

Region Closure starts at Almost certain at
Deep South (AL, MS, GA, TX, LA)1"3"
Mid-South (NC, VA, TN, KY)2"5"
Pacific NW (WA, OR)2"5"
Mid-Atlantic (DC, MD, NJ, DE)3"7"
Mountain West (CO, UT, WY, MT)5"10"
Northeast (NY, MA, CT, PA)4"9"
Midwest (OH, IN, IL, MO)4"9"
Upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI)6"12"
Great Lakes (Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland)7"14"
🍁 CANADA
British Columbia (Vancouver)3"7"
Ontario (Toronto, Ottawa)8"16"
Quebec (Montreal, Quebec City)9"18"
Prairie Provinces (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg)10"20"
Maritime Provinces (Halifax, Fredericton)10"20"

Data Sources

🇺🇸
USA

National Weather Service

The same government source superintendents reference when making closure decisions. Free, authoritative, and updated every 1–3 hours.

NWS • Official US Source
🇨🇦
Canada

Open-Meteo (ECMWF)

A free and accurate international weather service using the ECMWF global forecast model. NWS only covers the United States.

Open-Meteo • ECMWF Global Model

⚠️ The Snow Day Index is a decision-support tool, not a guarantee. School closure is a human decision made by your local district administrator. Always check your district’s official notification system for the final word. Forecast accuracy decreases significantly beyond 24 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is this snow day calculator?
Our predictions are based on real weather forecast data and a weighted scoring model that considers snowfall amount, timing, temperature, precipitation type, and your region's closure patterns. For USA locations, we use National Weather Service (NWS) data. For Canadian locations, we use Open-Meteo (ECMWF model). Short-term forecasts (12–24 hours) are most reliable. Predictions 48–72 hours out carry higher uncertainty and should be treated as early signals only.
Does this work for Canadian postal codes?
Yes. Enter your postal code (e.g. M5V 3A8 or M5V3A8) and the calculator will fetch weather for your area using Open-Meteo's global forecast model and apply Canada-specific regional closure thresholds. Canadian provinces have much higher snow tolerance than most US regions — Toronto and Ottawa typically close only at 8"+ accumulations, while the Prairie provinces (Calgary, Winnipeg) close even less frequently for snow alone.
Why does the same snow amount mean different things in different states?
Infrastructure and experience vary dramatically. Buffalo, NY maintains large plow fleets and handles 6 inches routinely. Atlanta, GA has a fraction of that equipment — 2 inches can shut the city down. Our regional closure thresholds account for this difference. These are baseline estimates — they will be refined over time as actual outcome data is collected through the feedback system.
Can freezing rain cause a snow day without much snow?
Yes. Even 0.1–0.25 inches of ice is more dangerous than 6 inches of ,255,0.8)">Mountain West (CO, UT, WY, MT)5"10" Northeast (NY, MA, CT, PA)4"9" Midwest (OH, IN, IL, MO)4"9" Upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI)6"12" Great Lakes (Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland)7"14" 🍁 CANADA British Columbia (Vancouver)3"7" Ontario (Toronto, Ottawa)8"16" Quebec (Montreal, Quebec City)9"18" Prairie Provinces (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg)10"20" Maritime Provinces (Halifax, Fredericton)10"20"

Data Sources

USA: Weather data comes from the National Weather Service (NWS) — the same government source superintendents reference when making closure decisions. Free, authoritative, updated every 1–3 hours. Canada: Weather data is provided by Open-Meteo (ECMWF global forecast model), a free and accurate international weather service. NWS only covers the United States.

⚠️ The Snow Day Index is a decision-support tool, not a guarantee. School closure is a human decision made by your local district administrator. Always check your district's official notification system for the final word. Forecast accuracy decreases significantly beyond 24 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is this snow day calculator?
Our predictions are based on real weather forecast data and a weighted scoring model that considers snowfall amount, timing, temperature, precipitation type, and your region's closure patterns. For USA locations, we use National Weather Service (NWS) data. For Canadian locations, we use Open-Meteo (ECMWF model). Short-term forecasts (12–24 hours) are most reliable. Predictions 48–72 hours out carry higher uncertainty and should be treated as early signals only.
Does this work for Canadian postal codes?
Yes. Enter your postal code (e.g. M5V 3A8 or M5V3A8) and the calculator will fetch weather for your area using Open-Meteo's global forecast model and apply Canada-specific regional closure thresholds. Canadian provinces have much higher snow tolerance than most US regions — Toronto and Ottawa typically close only at 8"+ accumulations, while the Prairie provinces (Calgary, Winnipeg) close even less frequently for snow alone.
Why does the same snow amount mean different things in different states?
Infrastructure and experience vary dramatically. Buffalo, NY maintains large plow fleets and handles 6 inches routinely. Atlanta, GA has a fraction of that equipment — 2 inches can shut the city down. Our regional closure thresholds account for this difference. These are baseline estimates — they will be refined over time as actual outcome data is collected through the feedback system.
Can freezing rain cause a snow day without much snow?
Yes. Even 0.1–0.25 inches of ice is more dangerous than 6 inches of snow on roads. Ice cannot be plowed and road salt loses effectiveness below 15°F. Ice-related closures are common even with minimal snow accumulation.
When do schools usually announce closures?
Most school districts make the call between 4:30 AM and 6:00 AM on the morning of a potential closure. For large, clearly severe storms, some districts announce the evening before. Always check your district's official notification system for the final decision.
Does extreme cold alone cause school closures?
Yes. Wind chill below -15°F to -20°F is a standalone closure trigger in many northern districts. Students waiting at unsheltered bus stops face frostbite risk even with no snow at all.
What is the difference between a snow day and a 2-hour delay?
A 2-hour delay gives road crews extra time to clear routes before buses deploy. Districts choose this when conditions are expected to improve enough by mid-morning. A full closure means the district determined conditions will not be safe for the entire school day.
130cm Average Annual Snowfall
15cm+ Typical Closure Threshold
-45°C Extreme Wind Chill Possible
110,000+ EPSB Students

How Snow Day Calculator Works For Edmonton

Edmonton winters are among the most severe of any major Canadian city. As the northernmost major city in Canada, Edmonton sits deep in the Alberta interior where Arctic air masses arrive with little geographic barrier to slow them down. Long winters, deep cold, and regular snowfall make Edmonton one of the most weather-challenged school systems in the country. Our Snow Day Calculator pulls real-time Environment Canada weather data for Edmonton and the surrounding area, weighing snowfall accumulation, extreme cold, wind chill, blowing snow, and road safety to generate a school closure probability for your postal code.

Edmonton Public Schools (EPSB) and Edmonton Catholic Schools (ECSD) each serve tens of thousands of students across the city and surrounding communities. Both boards make independent closure decisions, and the calculator gives you a unified probability estimate based on local weather conditions.

Why Edmonton Has Long Winter Conditions

Heavy Snowfall & Snow Accumulation

Edmonton averages approximately 130 centimetres of snow per season, with a winter season that typically runs from October through April. Unlike Calgary, Edmonton does not benefit from Chinook warming events and instead experiences persistent cold with regular snowfall accumulation throughout the winter. Individual storms can drop 20-30 cm of snow, and the consistent cold means snow accumulates across the city rather than melting between events. School bus routes through Edmonton's sprawling suburban communities in the north, south, and west can become impassable for hours after major overnight snowfalls as snow removal works through its priority system.

Northern Location

Edmonton is the northernmost major city in Canada, sitting at approximately 53.5 degrees north latitude. This positioning means shorter winter days, longer stretches of extreme cold, and a winter season that runs nearly six months from October through March.

Arctic Air Exposure

Located on the Alberta prairies with no major mountain range to its north, Edmonton receives Arctic air masses directly from the Mackenzie Valley. These cold fronts can drive temperatures to -30C or below with wind chills reaching -45C, creating genuinely dangerous outdoor conditions.

North Saskatchewan River Valley

Edmonton's river valley creates temperature variations across the city. Valley communities can experience different wind conditions and temperature inversions than upland areas, adding complexity to school closure decisions that must account for conditions across a large urban area.

Extended Snow Season

Unlike southern Alberta cities that sometimes see mid-winter thaws, Edmonton's cold temperatures mean snow accumulates from first fall through spring melt. By mid-winter, packed snow and ice on residential streets can persist for weeks, creating ongoing transportation challenges.

Extreme Cold & Wind Chill

Wind chill is the dominant factor in Edmonton school closure decisions. Unlike Calgary's Chinook-influenced climate, Edmonton experiences sustained Arctic cold without relief. Wind chills below -30C to -40C can occur multiple times each winter, and students waiting at outdoor bus stops in Edmonton's exposed suburban areas face frostbite risk within minutes at these temperatures. Edmonton school boards have cold-weather closure protocols that can trigger school closures or delayed starts based purely on wind chill forecasts, with no snowfall required. This cold-only closure risk is higher in Edmonton than in almost any other major Canadian city.

Ice Roads & Winter Transportation

Persistent cold in Edmonton creates long-lasting ice on residential streets and sidewalks. While main roads are treated and cleared relatively quickly, the side streets and school bus routes through residential neighbourhoods can remain icy for days after a snowfall event. This persistent ice — unlike the freeze-thaw cycle that creates Calgary's acute ice risk — means Edmonton transportation crews face ongoing road safety challenges throughout the winter season. School boards weigh this cumulative icing when assessing bus route safety in the early morning hours before a closure decision is made.

Edmonton School Boards & Snow Day Decisions

Edmonton's school closure decisions are made independently by each school board based on weather conditions and transportation safety across their specific service areas.

Edmonton Public Schools (EPSB)

One of the largest school districts in Alberta, serving over 110,000 students across Edmonton. The EPSB makes centralized closure decisions and communicates through epsb.ca, local media, and automated parent notification systems.

Edmonton Catholic Schools (ECSD)

Serving Catholic school families across Edmonton and surrounding communities, ECSD makes independent closure decisions. Families should monitor ecsd.net for official announcements in addition to local radio and television broadcasts.

Elk Island Public Schools

Serving communities east of Edmonton including Sherwood Park, Fort Saskatchewan, and Strathcona County, Elk Island makes independent closure decisions that may differ from Edmonton city boards based on local road conditions.

Parkland School Division

Serving communities west of Edmonton including Spruce Grove, Stony Plain, and Parkland County, Parkland School Division makes independent closure decisions based on local conditions that can differ from the city.

Weather Factors That Affect Edmonton School Closures

Weather Factor Low Impact Moderate Impact High Impact
Snow Accumulation Under 5 cm 5–15 cm 15 cm+ (closure likely)
Wind Chill Above -20°C -20°C to -35°C Below -40°C (closure risk)
Road Conditions Clear and treated Packed snow Icy side streets (closure likely)
Blowing Snow Light drift Reduced visibility Near-zero visibility (closure risk)
Snowfall Rate Under 1 cm/hr 1–3 cm/hr Over 4 cm/hr (storm conditions)

How Edmonton Schools Decide Snow Days

Edmonton school boards monitor Environment Canada weather forecasts beginning the evening before a predicted storm. Superintendents assess projected snowfall totals, overnight road conditions, wind chill forecasts for early morning, and the status of bus routes across the city and surrounding communities. Bus contractors report on road conditions before the final closure decision is finalized. Closures are typically announced by 6:00-6:30 AM through board websites, 630 CHED, Global Edmonton, CTV Edmonton, and automated parent notification calls and emails.

❄ Check Early

Run the calculator the night before a storm to see probability trends. Edmonton school boards typically announce closures by 6:00-6:30 AM. Check epsb.ca and ecsd.net for official announcements.

♨ Watch Wind Chill

Edmonton schools may close even with minimal snow when wind chills drop to dangerous levels. Our calculator weights wind chill heavily in the closure probability score — especially important for Edmonton's northern prairie climate where cold-only closures are more common than in southern Canadian cities.

📍 Use Your Postal Code

Snowfall and temperatures can vary across Edmonton and surrounding communities. Enter your postal code for the most localized Environment Canada weather data and snow day prediction for your school board.

Edmonton Areas Covered By Snow Day Calculator

Our calculator covers Edmonton and the surrounding communities, including:

Enter any Edmonton area postal code to get a localized snow day prediction for your school board.

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