❄️ Snow Day Probability & School Closure Prediction

Snow Day Calculator for Quebec City - Will Schools Close Tomorrow?

Check your Quebec City snow day probability before the school announcement. Instant school closure prediction based on heavy snowfall, freezing rain, wind chill, and local road conditions.

🏛️ National Weather Service Data (USA)
🌍 Open-Meteo Forecast (Canada)
📍 Location-Based Prediction

Check Your Quebec City Snow Day Chance

Enter your ZIP or Postal Code to check your snow day chance. Get a Snow Day Index score based on real weather data — specific to your region's closure patterns.

Checking weather conditions...
Locating your ZIP code
Updated -- · Source: NWS
Next refresh available in ~30 min
Loading...
Snow Day Index
--
Calculating...

🍊 Confidence: --

Score reflects weather conditions vs your region's baseline closure threshold.
Not a statistical probability — see methodology.

Tomorrow's School Status Estimate

Based on Snow Day Index — not calibrated probability yet

Full Closure
--
2-Hr Delay
--
School Open
--

⚠️ These splits are model estimates only. Closure vs. delay decisions depend on district policy, superintendent judgment, and conditions not fully captured by forecast data.

🌨️
--
Expected Snow
🌡️
--
Morning Feel
💨
--
Wind Speed
⏰
--
Snow Timing
Why This Score

Each factor is scored independently — no double-counting

5-Day Snow Day Outlook

Index scores for the next 5 days · Accuracy decreases beyond 24hrs

Day Snow Index Signal

⚠️ Days 3–5 carry low forecast confidence. Use as early signal only — recheck daily as storm approaches.

Prediction History

How this prediction has changed as the forecast updates

Check back later — score history builds as you refresh predictions for this location.
Hourly Snowfall Forecast
Snow (in/hr)
Morning window (4–8 AM)
What If Scenarios

All scenarios calculated at once — see how each condition changes the score

↑↓ arrow keys · Enter to select · Esc to close
  • Tonight / Tomorrow
  • Day After Tomorrow
  • In 3 Days

ℹ️ Rural districts close at lower snow totals (longer bus routes). Private schools may set different thresholds. These are small adjustments — weather conditions drive the score.

Enter custom weather conditions to see how they affect the Snow Day Index score

❄️ Expected Snowfall 4 inches
🌡️ Morning Temperature (°F) 28°F
💨 Wind Speed (mph) 10 mph
🧊 Ice Accumulation 0 inches
⏰ Storm peaks during 4 AM – 8 AM window
⚠️ Blizzard / Winter Storm Warning active
🌧️ Freezing rain expected
--
Adjust the sliders above

🗺️ Live Weather Maps

▼ Show

How the Snow Day Index Works

The score is not a statistical probability — it's a structured index built from weather conditions compared against your region's baseline closure thresholds. Each variable measures something independent. We designed the algorithm to avoid double-counting the same conditions twice.

🌨️ Snowfall vs Regional Threshold (0–40 pts)

The biggest factor. Snowfall is scored against your region's typical closure threshold — not a flat national scale. 4 inches in Atlanta scores higher than 4 inches in Buffalo because Atlanta's threshold is lower. The region is built into this variable, not applied as a separate multiplier afterward.

⏰ Storm Timing (0–25 pts)

Measures only when the storm falls, not how much. A small storm peaking at 4 AM scores higher timing than a large storm at noon. This is completely independent from snowfall amount.

🧊 Ice / Freezing Rain (0–20 pts)

Scored separately from snowfall because ice is a different hazard. Even 0.1 inches of freezing rain is more dangerous than 6 inches of snow. This variable only activates if freezing rain is detected — it cannot overlap with V1.

🌡️ Extreme Cold / Wind Chill (0–15 pts)

Cold-day closures are a completely separate mechanism. Wind chill below -10°F can close schools with zero snow. This variable is not correlated with snowfall — it only contributes in genuinely extreme cold conditions.

⚠️ NWS Alert — Floor, Not Bonus

This is the most important design decision. NWS alerts are issued because of the same storm already measured in V1–V3. Adding alert points on top would count the same storm twice. Instead, alerts set a minimum floor — if the weather score is already higher, the alert adds nothing.

📊 Future Calibration

We collect actual school closure outcomes via the feedback button. Once we have enough data, we can compare score buckets to real closure rates — converting the index into a genuinely calibrated estimate. The methodology section will show this data publicly as we collect it.

Regional Closure Thresholds

Different regions have different infrastructure, plow capacity, and experience with snow. These thresholds are baseline estimates — not arbitrary coefficients — and will be updated as outcome feedback data accumulates.

Region Closure starts at Almost certain at
Deep South (AL, MS, GA, TX, LA)1"3"
Mid-South (NC, VA, TN, KY)2"5"
Pacific NW (WA, OR)2"5"
Mid-Atlantic (DC, MD, NJ, DE)3"7"
Mountain West (CO, UT, WY, MT)5"10"
Northeast (NY, MA, CT, PA)4"9"
Midwest (OH, IN, IL, MO)4"9"
Upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI)6"12"
Great Lakes (Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland)7"14"
🍁 CANADA
British Columbia (Vancouver)3"7"
Ontario (Toronto, Ottawa)8"16"
Quebec (Montreal, Quebec City)9"18"
Prairie Provinces (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg)10"20"
Maritime Provinces (Halifax, Fredericton)10"20"

Data Sources

🇺🇸
USA

National Weather Service

The same government source superintendents reference when making closure decisions. Free, authoritative, and updated every 1–3 hours.

NWS • Official US Source
🇨🇦
Canada

Open-Meteo (ECMWF)

A free and accurate international weather service using the ECMWF global forecast model. NWS only covers the United States.

Open-Meteo • ECMWF Global Model

⚠️ The Snow Day Index is a decision-support tool, not a guarantee. School closure is a human decision made by your local district administrator. Always check your district’s official notification system for the final word. Forecast accuracy decreases significantly beyond 24 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is this snow day calculator?
Our predictions are based on real weather forecast data and a weighted scoring model that considers snowfall amount, timing, temperature, precipitation type, and your region's closure patterns. For USA locations, we use National Weather Service (NWS) data. For Canadian locations, we use Open-Meteo (ECMWF model). Short-term forecasts (12–24 hours) are most reliable. Predictions 48–72 hours out carry higher uncertainty and should be treated as early signals only.
Does this work for Canadian postal codes?
Yes. Enter your postal code (e.g. M5V 3A8 or M5V3A8) and the calculator will fetch weather for your area using Open-Meteo's global forecast model and apply Canada-specific regional closure thresholds. Canadian provinces have much higher snow tolerance than most US regions — Toronto and Ottawa typically close only at 8"+ accumulations, while the Prairie provinces (Calgary, Winnipeg) close even less frequently for snow alone.
Why does the same snow amount mean different things in different states?
Infrastructure and experience vary dramatically. Buffalo, NY maintains large plow fleets and handles 6 inches routinely. Atlanta, GA has a fraction of that equipment — 2 inches can shut the city down. Our regional closure thresholds account for this difference. These are baseline estimates — they will be refined over time as actual outcome data is collected through the feedback system.
Can freezing rain cause a snow day without much snow?
Yes. Even 0.1–0.25 inches of ice is more dangerous than 6 inches of ,255,0.8)">Mountain West (CO, UT, WY, MT)5"10" Northeast (NY, MA, CT, PA)4"9" Midwest (OH, IN, IL, MO)4"9" Upper Midwest (MN, WI, MI)6"12" Great Lakes (Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland)7"14" 🍁 CANADA British Columbia (Vancouver)3"7" Ontario (Toronto, Ottawa)8"16" Quebec (Montreal, Quebec City)9"18" Prairie Provinces (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg)10"20" Maritime Provinces (Halifax, Fredericton)10"20"

Data Sources

USA: Weather data comes from the National Weather Service (NWS) — the same government source superintendents reference when making closure decisions. Free, authoritative, updated every 1–3 hours. Canada: Weather data is provided by Open-Meteo (ECMWF global forecast model), a free and accurate international weather service. NWS only covers the United States.

⚠️ The Snow Day Index is a decision-support tool, not a guarantee. School closure is a human decision made by your local district administrator. Always check your district's official notification system for the final word. Forecast accuracy decreases significantly beyond 24 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is this snow day calculator?
Our predictions are based on real weather forecast data and a weighted scoring model that considers snowfall amount, timing, temperature, precipitation type, and your region's closure patterns. For USA locations, we use National Weather Service (NWS) data. For Canadian locations, we use Open-Meteo (ECMWF model). Short-term forecasts (12–24 hours) are most reliable. Predictions 48–72 hours out carry higher uncertainty and should be treated as early signals only.
Does this work for Canadian postal codes?
Yes. Enter your postal code (e.g. M5V 3A8 or M5V3A8) and the calculator will fetch weather for your area using Open-Meteo's global forecast model and apply Canada-specific regional closure thresholds. Canadian provinces have much higher snow tolerance than most US regions — Toronto and Ottawa typically close only at 8"+ accumulations, while the Prairie provinces (Calgary, Winnipeg) close even less frequently for snow alone.
Why does the same snow amount mean different things in different states?
Infrastructure and experience vary dramatically. Buffalo, NY maintains large plow fleets and handles 6 inches routinely. Atlanta, GA has a fraction of that equipment — 2 inches can shut the city down. Our regional closure thresholds account for this difference. These are baseline estimates — they will be refined over time as actual outcome data is collected through the feedback system.
Can freezing rain cause a snow day without much snow?
Yes. Even 0.1–0.25 inches of ice is more dangerous than 6 inches of snow on roads. Ice cannot be plowed and road salt loses effectiveness below 15°F. Ice-related closures are common even with minimal snow accumulation.
When do schools usually announce closures?
Most school districts make the call between 4:30 AM and 6:00 AM on the morning of a potential closure. For large, clearly severe storms, some districts announce the evening before. Always check your district's official notification system for the final decision.
Does extreme cold alone cause school closures?
Yes. Wind chill below -15°F to -20°F is a standalone closure trigger in many northern districts. Students waiting at unsheltered bus stops face frostbite risk even with no snow at all.
What is the difference between a snow day and a 2-hour delay?
A 2-hour delay gives road crews extra time to clear routes before buses deploy. Districts choose this when conditions are expected to improve enough by mid-morning. A full closure means the district determined conditions will not be safe for the entire school day.
337cmAverage Annual Snowfall
-12°CAverage January Temperature
-25°CExtreme Wind Chill Possible
5+School Months With Snow Risk

How Snow Day Calculator Works For Quebec City

Quebec City is one of the snowiest major cities in North America, averaging over 337 cm of snowfall annually. Snow day decisions here are shaped by heavy snowfall events, frequent winter storms, freezing rain, and cold temperatures that create challenging conditions for students and school transportation. Our Snow Day Calculator pulls real-time Environment Canada forecast data for your Quebec City postal code, analyzing snowfall accumulation, wind chill, ice risk, storm timing, and road conditions to generate a school closure probability score for your location.

Quebec City sits on the north shore of the St. Lawrence River, exposed to winter storms arriving from both the Gulf of St. Lawrence and continental systems tracking from the west. The upper town and lower town experience slightly different conditions, but the broader Quebec City region consistently receives some of the highest annual snowfall totals in Canada. The Snow Day Calculator uses your postal code to apply Quebec City-specific winter thresholds to your prediction.

Why Snow Days Are Different in Quebec City

Quebec City Winter Climate Pattern

Quebec City experiences long winter seasons with frequent snowfall, cold temperatures, and snow-covered conditions that can persist from November through April. The city averages over 337 cm of snow annually — among the highest of any major Canadian city. Winter storms arrive regularly, and residents are accustomed to significant snowfall, but storm timing, ice events, and the combination of cold and snow still influence when school authorities decide to close schools or issue delays.

Heavy Snowfall Events

Quebec City receives some of the most significant snowfall totals in North America. Major snowstorms can deliver 30–50 cm in a single event, creating rapid accumulation that challenges snow clearing operations and makes school bus routes hazardous before morning operations can begin.

Freezing Rain & Ice Storms

Freezing rain is a significant winter hazard in Quebec City. When warm air overrides cold surface temperatures, precipitation falls as rain and freezes on contact, coating roads, sidewalks, and school bus routes with dangerous ice. Ice events trigger school closures at lower precipitation totals than pure snowstorms.

Winter Storm Frequency

The Quebec City region experiences frequent winter storm systems throughout the season. Back-to-back storms can leave roads in difficult condition for extended periods, and the cumulative effect of repeated snowfall events challenges snow removal operations citywide, affecting school transportation planning.

Cold Temperatures & Wind Chill

Quebec City winters bring sustained cold with overnight temperatures regularly dropping below -15°C and wind chill values that can reach -25°C or lower. Cold conditions combined with snowfall or ice events increase the overall closure risk for school authorities weighing student outdoor safety.

Heavy Snowfall and Winter Storm Challenges

Quebec City's exceptional snowfall totals mean that the city is well-equipped for winter operations, but the sheer frequency and intensity of winter storms still creates regular challenges. A storm delivering 40 cm overnight leaves snow clearing teams racing to clear bus routes and school access roads before the morning commute. Storm timing is critical — a major snowfall arriving on a weekday night carries far higher school closure risk than the same storm arriving on a weekend. The Snow Day Index weights storm timing heavily in its probability calculation.

Cold Weather and Transportation Factors

Cold temperatures and wind chill compound the impact of snowfall on school transportation in Quebec City. School buses operating in extreme cold face mechanical challenges, and students waiting at bus stops in low temperatures and strong winds face outdoor safety risks. School authorities factor both road conditions and cold exposure into closure decisions, particularly for routes serving younger students in outlying areas.

Quebec City School Authorities & Snow Day Decisions

Quebec City school closure decisions are made independently by each school authority based on local weather conditions and student safety.

Commission scolaire de la Capitale

The primary French-language school authority serving Quebec City, responsible for schools across the greater Quebec City region. Closure decisions are announced through the commission's official website and parent notification systems, typically before 7:00 AM on weather event days.

Central Quebec School Board

The English-language school authority serving Quebec City and surrounding regions. The Central Quebec School Board makes independent closure decisions based on local weather and transportation safety, announced through their official website and media outlets.

Commission scolaire des Navigateurs

Serving communities on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River near Quebec City, this school authority makes closure decisions based on local road conditions and weather, which can differ from conditions in the city proper due to the river crossing and elevation differences.

Quebec Ministry of Education

The Ministère de l'Éducation du Québec sets provincial education policy but does not make individual school closure decisions. Local school authorities retain full authority over closure decisions based on local conditions. Families should check their school authority's official website for announcements.

Weather Factors That Affect Quebec City School Closures

Weather FactorLow ImpactModerate ImpactHigh Impact
Snow AccumulationUnder 10 cm10–25 cm25 cm+ or overnight blizzard (closure likely)
Freezing Rain / IceTrace amounts2–5 mm ice5 mm+ (closure risk)
Wind ChillAbove -15°C-15°C to -25°CBelow -25°C (added risk)
TemperatureAbove -10°C-10°C to -20°CBelow -20°C (added risk)
Storm TimingAfternoon / eveningEarly morning clearingOvernight into morning commute

How Quebec City Schools Decide Snow Days

Quebec City school authority officials monitor Environment Canada weather forecasts from the evening before any predicted winter weather event. Transportation coordinators assess projected snowfall totals, overnight temperature trends, road condition reports, and ice risk. When major storms or freezing rain are forecast, authorities may make preliminary decisions the evening before and confirm them by early morning. Most Quebec City school authorities announce closures between 6:00 and 7:00 AM through their official websites, Radio-Canada, TVA, RNC Media, and parent notification systems.

❄ Check the Evening Before

Run the calculator the night before a storm to see your early snow day probability. Quebec City school authorities typically announce closures by 6:30 to 7:00 AM. Check your school authority's website directly for official confirmation.

☁ Watch for Freezing Rain

In Quebec City, freezing rain events often carry higher closure risk than pure snowstorms. Our calculator weights ice risk heavily. Even a moderate freezing rain event can close schools when it coats bus routes and sidewalks with ice.

📍 Use Your Postal Code

Enter your Quebec City postal code for the most localized Environment Canada weather data. Conditions can vary between upper town, lower town, and surrounding municipalities. Your postal code ensures the prediction reflects your area.

Quebec City Areas Covered By Snow Day Calculator

Our calculator covers Quebec City and the surrounding region, including:

Enter any Quebec City area postal code to get a localized snow day prediction for your school authority.

Popular Quebec City Snow Day Searches

Explore More Cities

Nearby Snow Day Calculators

Check snow day chances for cities near Quebec City.